Population Data
To project Bulgaria’s population, we pulled data from Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute. Using historical trends, and assuming current trends continue, we were able to establish a reasonable expectation for predicting future population values.
We used two models for these population projections: the Monte Carlo model and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. In each of Bulgaria’s metropolitan areas, we ran multiple configurations of each of the two models to find out which model (and which configuration within that model) was most accurate for that metropolitan area.
Bulgaria’s metropolitan areas are based on the country’s NUTS3 provinces. The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) geographical division is constructed by Eurostat. We apply this same approach across all of our European countries.
In addition to the LMI data mentioned here, Lightcast also offers insights through Global Worker profiles in Bulgaria.
Labor Market Information (LMI) Data
We pulled Bulgaria’s labor market information (LMI) from three sources:
Cedefop (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training), an agency of the EU.
The EU Labor Force Survey (LFS), a large household sample survey conducted annually since 1983.
Industry data from Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute’s website.
When creating the occupation supply projections, we took the expected population growth rate from the models mentioned above and applied that same growth rate across the LMI in each of Bulgaria’s NUTS regions. Once we had the projections, we mapped the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) to Global Occupations.