Population Data
To project Estonia’s population, we pulled data from Estonia Statistics. Using historical trends, and assuming the current activity prevails, we were able to establish a reasonable expectation for predicting future population values.
We used two models for these population projections: The Monte Carlo and the Autoregression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. In each of Estonia’s metropolitan areas, we ran multiple configurations of each of the two models to find out which model (and which configuration within that model) was most accurate for that metro.
Estonia’s metropolitan areas are based on the country’s NUTS 3 counties The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) geographical division is constructed by Eurostat and a model we applied to all of our European countries. Moreover, we took into consideration the country’s administrative reform of 2017.
In addition to the LMI data mentioned here Lightcast also offers insights through Global Worker profiles in Estonia.
Labor Market Information (LMI) Data
We pulled Estonia’s labor market information (LMI) from three sources:
Cedefop (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training), an agency of the EU.
The EU Labor Force Survey (LFS), a large household sample survey conducted annually since 1983.
Industry data from Statistics Estonia.
When creating the occupation supply projections, we took the expected population growth rate from the models mentioned above and applied that same growth rate across the LMI in each of Estonia’s metros. Once we had the projections, we mapped the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) to Global Occupations.