Population Data
To project Turkey’s population, we pulled data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). Using historical trends, and assuming the current activity prevails, we were able to establish a reasonable expectation for predicting future population values.
We used two models for these population projections: The Monte Carlo and the Autoregression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. In each of Turkey’s metro areas, we ran multiple configurations of each of the two models to find out which model (and which configuration within that model) was most accurate for that metro.
Turkey’s metropolitan areas are based on the country’s NUTS3 provinces. The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) geographical division is constructed by Eurostat.
In addition to the LMI data mentioned here Lightcast also offers insights through Global Worker profiles in Turkey.
Labor Market Information (LMI) Data
We pulled Turkey’s labor market information (LMI) from three sources:
Cedefop (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training), an agency of the EU.
The EU Labor Force Survey (LFS), a large household sample survey conducted annually since 1983.
Industry data extracted from the country’s Population and Housing Census, obtained from TUIK.
When creating the occupation supply projections, we took the expected population growth rate from the models mentioned above and applied that same growth rate across the LMI in each Turkish metropolitan area. Once we had the projections, we mapped the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) to Global Occupations.