Population Data
To project Norway’s population, we pulled data Statistics Norway. Using historical trends, and assuming the current activity prevails, we were able to establish a reasonable expectation for predicting future population values.
We used two models for these population projections: The Monte Carlo and the Autoregression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. In each of Norway’s metro areas, we ran multiple configurations of each of the two models to find out which model (and which configuration within that model) was most accurate for that metro.
Norway’s metropolitan areas are based on the country’s NUTS3 counties. The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) geographical division is constructed by Eurostat. The metros were also adjusted to reflect the numerous government reforms the country went through to ultimately reach their 2020 county re-definition that seeks to reduce the number of counties to 11.
In addition to the LMI data mentioned here Lightcast also offers insights through Global Worker profiles in Norway.
Labor Market Information (LMI) Data
We pulled Norway’s labor market information (LMI) from four sources:
Cedefop (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training), an agency of the EU.
The EU Labor Force Survey (LFS), a large household sample survey conducted annually since 1983.
Industry data at the NUTS3 level from Statistics Norway.
Occupation data at the national level from Statistics Norway.
When creating the occupation supply projections, we took the expected population growth rate from the models mentioned above and applied that same growth rate across the LMI in each Norwegian metropolitan area. Once we had the projections, we mapped the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) to Global Occupations.