Population Data
To project Poland’s population, we pulled data from Statistics Poland. Using historical trends, and assuming the current activity prevails, we were able to establish a reasonable expectation for predicting future population values.
We used two models for these population projections: The Monte Carlo and the Autoregression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. In each of Poland’s metro areas, we ran multiple configurations of each of the two models to find out which model (and which configuration within that model) was most accurate for that metro.
Poland’s metropolitan areas are hand-curated based on the country’s Powiats (subregions) and Voivodships (regions). These regions and subregions could be vaguely associated with the LAU (formerly NUTS 4) tier of The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) a geographical division is constructed by Eurostat. More information on the different geographical and administrative division of Poland can be found here.
In addition to the LMI data mentioned here Lightcast also offers insights through Global Postings and Global Worker profiles in Poland.
Labor Market Information (LMI) Data
We pulled Poland’s labor market information (LMI) from three sources:
Cedefop (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training), an agency of the EU.
The EU Labor Force Survey (LFS), a large household sample survey conducted annually since 1983.
Industry data at the regional and sub-regional levels from Statistics Poland.
When creating the occupation supply projections, we took the expected population growth rate from the models mentioned above and applied that same growth rate across the LMI in each Polish metropolitan area. Once we had the projections, we mapped the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) to Global Occupations.